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Last week was a big week with both the U.S. election and the Fed holding their November meeting.
Let’s start with the Fed. As expected, the Fed unanimously voted to cut rates another 25-bps bringing the target range to 4.50% - 4.75%. This meeting was not one that included updated economic projections but there was some interesting information provided in Powell’s comments. He did adjust his previous comments slightly, mentioning that inflation and employment risks are roughly balanced compared to previously stating that there was a higher risk to employment. Asked about a possible rate hike in 2025 he responded that one was not currently planned and that the committee would continue to ease gradually.
On to the election, Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and the market’s reaction has signaled optimism over the result. For anyone watching the financial world, the rapid ascent of the Dow Jones and other major indices sent a clear message that investors see a lot to be hopeful about, at least in the short term.
But why did the market respond so positively, and what does this reveal about investor sentiment in a highly polarized climate?
Some might be tempted to label this a “Trump effect,” but it’s worth noting that much of this reaction likely stems from the pro-business policies generally associated with a Republican administration. Investors have been promised, and perhaps are expecting, a rollback on some of the regulations perceived to weigh down sectors like energy, finance, and even technology, leading to more favorable operating conditions.
Stock gains were not limited to a single sector. Tech, finance, and energy all saw strong movement, however, this optimism is being felt unevenly across sectors. Technology companies, which were already enjoying bullish market sentiment, saw immediate gains with stocks like Tesla leading the charge, it’s clear that investors are betting on more flexibility, less regulation, and a push for American innovation.
Financial institutions could also see a boost led by the hope that Wall Street’s recent years of regulated caution will be replaced by a more open regulatory stance. The energy sector should be another winner in the short term as many investors see a Trump administration as beneficial for oil, gas, and traditional energy sectors. Fossil fuel advocates likely see an opportunity for growth here, though it remains to be seen how these expectations will clash with increasingly global climate initiatives.
We previously discussed how volatility in the markets is elevated during election years until the election results are in, and this year was no exception. The VIX which gives us the implied volatility of the S&P 500, rose through the year, even spiking in August. As expected, volatility plunged significantly right after the results of the election were known. As markets really dislike uncertainty, investors become more comfortable as they become more clear on what the future policies will be, regardless of which party wins.
The broader theme in this market response is a bet on economic stability under a business-minded administration, and with a high probability that both the House and Senate will be controlled by Republicans, Trump should have an easier time getting his policies approved. Investors appear to believe his policies will create an environment more supportive of economic growth and corporate earnings. Ultimately, what we’re seeing is an initial vote of confidence, but one subject to change. If Trump can deliver a stable economic environment, investors should continue to back this administration. But if early policies provoke trade tensions, regulatory back-and-forth, or economic imbalances, this enthusiasm could prove short-lived.